philh comments on Rationality Quotes July 2016 - Less Wrong

1 Post author: bbleeker 01 July 2016 09:02AM

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Comment author: Document 02 July 2016 06:42:46PM *  1 point [-]

They didn't anticipate what the Internet would become--because they weren't fucking insane...

Robert Evans, Cracked

Related: Stranger Than History.

Comment author: philh 04 July 2016 09:19:50AM 2 points [-]

I'm not sure what the lesson is here. A sane forecaster could never have been accurate? That seems like it would need some justification.

Comment author: Tem42 23 July 2016 02:41:59AM 0 points [-]

A simple justification of a slightly less extreme position is easy enough: there were many sane people who did not predict the value of the internet, indicating that being sane and smart are not sufficient to predict such things.

There are plenty of quotes from people who were supposed to be experts (or at least well-educated) saything that heavier than air flight was impossible, computers would always be room-sized monstrosities of limited use, etc. I assume that this quote is pretty much the same idea (that future technology is unpredictable), but using a technology that is 1. more recent, and thus more relatable, and 2. not simply a matter of technology, but of adapted use; that is, most smart people might have guessed that the early internet could be made faster, webpages better, and the network more comprehensive. They simply didn't see the value that this would produce, and so assumed that technology would not move in that direction.

Comment author: philh 25 July 2016 09:35:08AM 1 point [-]

"Being sane and smart are not sufficient" is very different from "being insane is necessary".

Compare: "they didn't think heavier-than-air flight was possible - because they weren't fucking insane".