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Yosarian2 comments on The map of future models - Less Wrong

6 Post author: turchin 03 July 2016 01:17PM

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Comment author: Yosarian2 03 July 2016 04:52:59PM *  1 point [-]

A 3% a year economic growth model is actually an exponential growth model as well, it's not linear at all. The exponential growth rate is a lot lower then Moore's law, 1.03^n instead of 2^n, but it's still exponential growth.

Comment author: turchin 03 July 2016 06:07:43PM 1 point [-]

That is true, but those who use this model predict typically not for long - 5-10 years, where exponential nature of such growth is not much evident. But in demographic and long term economic prediction it becomes clearly exponential. Probably I should reformulate and separate slow, but exponential growth, from actually linear predictions.

Comment author: Yosarian2 03 July 2016 07:59:00PM 1 point [-]

Yeah; don't underestimate slow but exponential growth, I would say that 3% a year growth is what really started at the start of the industrial revolution and why we've gotten as far as we have.

Personally I expect overall civilization wide exponential growth at some intermediate level for the next few decades faster than 3% but slower then Moore's law. Lot of uncertainty in there of course.