= 27d567bc2d48d9f40e9ccc20ea370b15)
turchin comments on The map of future models - Less Wrong
You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.
= 783df68a0f980790206b9ea87794c5b6)
Loading…= b715d02e85f7b3b4ae65ca3d3e450868)
Subscribe to RSS Feed
Powered by Reddit
= f037147d6e6c911a85753b9abdedda8d)
You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.
Comments (22)
That is true, but those who use this model predict typically not for long - 5-10 years, where exponential nature of such growth is not much evident. But in demographic and long term economic prediction it becomes clearly exponential. Probably I should reformulate and separate slow, but exponential growth, from actually linear predictions.
Yeah; don't underestimate slow but exponential growth, I would say that 3% a year growth is what really started at the start of the industrial revolution and why we've gotten as far as we have.
Personally I expect overall civilization wide exponential growth at some intermediate level for the next few decades faster than 3% but slower then Moore's law. Lot of uncertainty in there of course.