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MrMind comments on The map of future models - Less Wrong

6 Post author: turchin 03 July 2016 01:17PM

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Comment author: MrMind 04 July 2016 08:24:00AM 0 points [-]

While most of these models are intuitive to grasp, I noticed I was confused by the spiral. So I followed the link, but the article doesn't seem to explain it at all.
According to the text, we are living in an era of ever accelerating "yangization", whatever that might mean. But the picture instead shows history as a process with two ever-dwindling parameters (cockiness / horse-iness), which are never explained in the text.
Now I'm more confused than when I started.

Comment author: turchin 04 July 2016 10:56:18AM *  0 points [-]

One of the proponents of spiral development was Karl Marx. He claimed that history will come to the same constructions but on the higher level of development. E.g. he claimed that primitive communism of tribal people will be reached again on the highest level of society development. He probably got the idea of spiral development from Hegel.

Spiral development is combination of idea of progress and idea of circularity of history.

About yangization... I think I have to update the link ))

Comment author: MrMind 04 July 2016 03:32:31PM 0 points [-]

If I remember my philosophy lessons in high-school, Hegel was the proponent of the idea that history faces moments where it develops a thesis, which eventually makes the opposite thesis grows, until finally the two are reunited in a synthesis. That is, a progression, circular in nature, but still expanding.
It's curious that the spiral in the picture grows inwards, not outwards. Weird.

Comment author: turchin 04 July 2016 08:02:13PM *  1 point [-]

I think your memory of Hegel is correct.

By the way he also thought that Prussia of the beginning of 19 century is ultimate end of history. He also thought that the history is a story of "establishment of the Spirit", and so the God is in the future - so he was near prediction of future superhuman AI, but idea of Prussia as ultimate state prevented him from following his own logic to its end. This of cause is just my interpretation.

The picture is result of internet search of an image by keywords "spiral development". But the fact that it is inward could make sense if we think of it in the context of exponential acceleration. If it will be 3D, it will be a conus.

Comment author: MrMind 04 July 2016 08:26:53AM 0 points [-]

Ah, but in the spiral there is a global risk, a sort of "yangization catastrophe" that we will enter if we are not able to tame history with a process of "yinnization":

We might expect an explosion: we reach the center point and most of mankind is wiped out by some cataclysm, perhaps self-inflicted.