TL;DR: Many models of the future exist. Several are relevant. Hyperbolic model is strongest, but too strange.
Our need: correct model of the future
Different people: different models = no communication.
Assumptions:
Model of the future = main driving force of historical process + graphic of changes
Model of the future determines global risks
The map: lists all main future models.
Structure: from fast growth – to slow growth models.
Pfd: http://immortality-roadmap.com/futuremodelseng.pdf
The model just say that the tech. progress is not the main and overwhelming power. In this case all you said is valid.
Your point about "postapocaliptic" world model is interesting and I will consider its including. But I think it should be different model.