Yes, it's true. It is very difficult to build a forecast of non-automated way. Apparently need to take care of the right frame algorithm and gradually increase it, such as a inventions tree or matrix, for example. Then add the probability, time and further, to increase the amount of data. But what do we when the forecast crumbles in the future? Theoretically, even we having enough data, it's possible to come across a large number of bifurcation points that's just create too much a parallel universes with different futures. What if it does not matter that the forecast is correct. Importance their infinite number, from which you can choose the right future, with the help of special algorithms or be prepared for multiple outcomes.