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hg00 comments on The map of cognitive biases, errors and obstacles affecting judgment and management of global catastrophic risks - Less Wrong

3 Post author: turchin 16 July 2016 12:11PM

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Comment author: hg00 17 July 2016 09:46:38AM *  0 points [-]

He was forced out of controlling PayPal...and his vision for PayPal was to make it a “full-service financial institution”. He wanted to “convert the financial system from a series of heterogeneous insecure databases to one database.” This is threatening to the global elite in a way that going to Mars is not. Thus, he was forced out.

Do you have actual evidence that this happened or is it just a hunch? I've read a bit about it, and my understanding is that there were other factors... e.g. Musk was pushing the team away from open source and towards using Windows Server for everything.

The Red Pill says is clearly: women want good genes and good resources. This means that men with good genes have the opportunity for lots of sex, and men with good resources get strung along in sexless relationships, and men with neither good genes (looks) nor good resources (money/power) get nothing except shame. Women want the best they can get, so the top 10% of men have sex with the top 80% of women. Below-average men get nothing. Traditional marriage is illegal (“until death do us part” is legally unenforceable). Many women try to copy the behavior of the most attractive men -- promiscuous casual sex that they lie about -- and then settle down with someone much less attractive than their casual sex partners once they reach their late 20s. And for men: most men are weak, emotionally-manipulated, directionless sheep.

I'm familiar with this school of thought, and I think it's a useful perspective to keep in mind. My impression is that its prominence online has more to do with it plugging in to the rage-generating part of a man's brain (helpful for virality) than it having a solid evidential base. (It seems similar to leftist SJW canard in this regard.) Note the lack of citations in the essay you link to. Here are some data points that cause me to think the Red Pill folks overstate their case:

  • Cuckoldry seems relatively rare in non-self-selected populations.

  • Data does not seem to support the notion of extreme sexual inequalities based on how good looking a man is.

  • Only 3-5% of mammals pair bond. Humans are in that 3-5%. If women cheated with bad boys as consistently as the Red Pill types claim they do, pair bonding behaviors would have been selected against. (Note: I believe, though I have no evidence to prove it, that women use their relationship with their father as a cue re: whether to perform more of an r-selected or K-selected mating strategy. If their father is absent, that's evidence that r-selected mating is working out better in the current environment, and hence she feels low self-esteem, feels insecure that no man will ever love her, and assuages that insecurity by hooking up with high status men to prove to herself that she's worth something--or something like that, I don't know the exact psychological mechanism evolution has used to implement this. The takeaway is to date women who have good relationships with their fathers if you want a long-term monogamous partner, not women with "daddy issues".)

And for men: most men are weak, emotionally-manipulated, directionless sheep.

"Now it may be true that modern life leaves most men testosterone-deficient. But if that’s true, the culprit isn’t feminism. It’s bisphenol-A, low protein diets, fructose, alcoholism, vitamin A & D deficiency, and porn addiction." (JD Moyer) Men being weak and sheep-like seems to be a relatively recent phenomenon. Famed psychologist Philip Zimbardo has the story.

Notice the contradiction in the Red Pill worldview. The Red Pill crowd thinks that women ruthlessly choose to mate with assertive, dominant men due to their biological imperative. The Red Pill crowd also notes that the vast majority of guys are milquetoast, submissive "beta" men. But if women have a biological imperative to mate with assertive, dominant men, then why isn't the population of men already made up of 100% assertive, dominant men? You'd expect the submissive "betas" to have been selected out of the population by now.

Even if there's something about modern society that has unleashed hypergamy in women, wouldn't one expect to see a corresponding unleashment of assertiveness and dominance among men?

My answer: It's not so much that women are hypergamous as they seek a baseline level of competence and confidence. For an emotionally stable woman, a committed relationship with a respected brave is far better than a fling with the chief. And men of the past typically possessed this baseline level of competence and confidence:

I had dinner with Stefan Cavallo, a test pilot for NASA (“NACA” in those days) during World War II (interview). Cavallo intentionally flew a P-51 fighter into a thunderstorm to figure out why they were breaking up on the way back from bombing runs into Germany whereas the supposedly weaker B-17s were fine. It turned out that the stresses from turbulence caused the engine internals to come apart. Gaining this knowledge meant the loss of the airplane and Cavallo was forced to bail out of the test airplane.

Cavallo is also notable for being an inventor of the rigid flight helmet. His 1943 design was used by the federal government as prior art in a patent infringement lawsuit defense and subsequently donated to the Smithsonian. [look at that, he was a scientist]

What does this quiet widower hero, still flying light airplanes, think of the society that younger folks have created? “Somewhere along the way younger Americans squandered what we had built,” said Cavallo, though not with any bitterness. When he looks at us he sees timid paper shufflers, aggressive divorce lawsuit plaintiffs, and a general “can’t do” attitude: “By our mid-20s nearly all of us were in what would turn out to be lifelong marriages and we already had kids. The Empire State Building was built in a year.” I was pretty sure that this was an embellishment. They could not have actually built the world’s tallest building in 1/5th the time that we would today spend in the planning and approval process, could they have? Wikipedia shows that Cavallo’s 94-year-old brain is in fact working better than mine!

...

A bunch of us in our early 40’s were staying at the Sangre Froelicher hut (near Leadville, CO) in the late 90s (as I recall) – this hut is part of the 10th Mountain Division hut system in Colorado. There were several older men who it turns out served in the 10th Mountain Division in WWII, I believe they were in their 80’s. We all were humbled by their energy (up at 6am chopping wood, skiing all day, talking till late in the evening) and their camaraderie. It was remarkable, and I will never forget those people. I can only imagine the raw power, energy, and drive they possessed as 20 year olds.

Source. Do you think a man who intentionally flies a fighter jet in to a thunderstorm is a "weak, emotionally-manipulated, directionless sheep"? Do you think the men who built the Empire State Building in a year were also "weak, emotionally-manipulated, directionless"?

Younger British men are less likely to feel completely masculine than older men. Young women complain that men are afraid to initiate conversations with them in real life, preferring to arrange hookups via Tinder. And then there's this tidbit:

It’s a curious medical phenomenon, the increased erectile dysfunction in young males, which has been attributed to everything from chemicals in processed foods to the lack of intimacy in hookup sex.

How does the Red Pill crowd explain that? I'll give you some hints: I don't think there's been some kind of sudden evolutionary pressure for erectile dysfunction in young men, and I don't think it's a feminist conspiracy (both perpetual Red Pill bogeymen--analogous to "cishet white males" on the SJW side of things). It has to be something in the environment, like JD Moyer suggests. See also.

To be clear, the advice is to develop a ripped body that generates tingly feelings in women’s vaginas, not to “be a good person” or “make a positive difference” or even “have a job”. We deserve the coming global Apocalypse.

I'm suggesting this as a first step to fixing your issues with "weakness" and "directionlessness". To a first approximation, I think emotionally stable women (the sort who make good long term partners) are attracted to the product of how good a man is and how powerful he is. So it makes sense to address the area you're weaker in.

Comment author: Algernoq 19 July 2016 04:48:39AM 1 point [-]

Do you have actual evidence that [Elon Musk was pushed out of PayPal by a secret cabal of global financiers who wanted to ensure global financial markets stayed opaque] or is it just a hunch?

Just a hunch. But, "to understand a complex plot look at the outcome and see who benefits."

Cuckoldry seems relatively rare in non-self-selected populations.

Over 1% risk for unsuspecting men is enough that I'll paternity-test all of my children prior to claiming legal fatherhood.

For an emotionally stable woman, a committed relationship with a respected brave is far better than a fling with the chief.

The woman ideal is getting support/resources from the brave (good resources) while cheating with the chief (better genes). It's why human women evolved to hide their fertility and can have sex during their entire cycle, not just when they're fertile. The woman would have sex with the good-genes guy during her fertile window, and have sex with the good-resources guy the rest of the time.

Cavallo is also notable for being an inventor of the rigid flight helmet. His 1943 design was used by the federal government as prior art in a patent infringement lawsuit defense and subsequently donated to the Smithsonian. [look at that, he was a scientist]

Test pilots are not scientists...most of test pilot work is routine precision flying, and it's the engineers, not the pilots, who typically design the test program.

Nietzche said "Science acts only as a means of self-anesthetization for sufferers (scientists) who do not want to admit that they are such."

I don't think there's been some kind of sudden evolutionary pressure for erectile dysfunction in young men, and I don't think it's a feminist conspiracy (both perpetual Red Pill bogeymen--analogous to "cishet white males" on the SJW side of things).

The Red Pill also speculates about TV, porn, and carbs as causes of male weakness.

To a first approximation, I think emotionally stable women (the sort who make good long term partners) are attracted to the product of how good a man is and how powerful he is.

goodness = willingness to self-sacrifice for others' benefit.

The truth is ugly. Burn it down.

Burn it all down.

I am free.

Comment author: hg00 20 July 2016 10:10:53AM *  0 points [-]

Over 1% risk for unsuspecting men is enough that I'll paternity-test all of my children prior to claiming legal fatherhood.

As would I--there's no reason not to. But I think you are putting too much emphasis on the importance of this. In a healthy relationship, a paternity test is like an air bag: it's a safety measure to guard against something that has a very low chance of happening. Don't let the fact that bad female actors exist deter you from having happy relationships with good female actors. There's a woman on this very forum who precommitted to having her kids paternity tested.

Test pilots are not scientists...most of test pilot work is routine precision flying, and it's the engineers, not the pilots, who typically design the test program.

He invented the rigid flight helmet.

The woman ideal is getting support/resources from the brave (good resources) while cheating with the chief (better genes).

Nope, the best case scenario is to marry the chief or otherwise secure the commitment of a high status man. Cheating has a huge downside: it's possible to get caught and become ostracized. In the EEA, if a single mother was ostracized, her child's chance of success was considerably diminished. This created evolutionary pressure for women to be loyal, and that's why over 90% of births are non-cuckold births. That's why loyalty to a respected brave is a strategy that has higher expected value than cheating on a respected brave with the chief.

It doesn't take a genius to think of stuff like this, but it does not trigger male outrage and thus does not gather tons of pageviews and get repeated ad nauseum.

BTW I recommend http://reddit.com/r/purplepilldebate for getting some perspective on Red Pill ideas. But just in general keep in mind that they're presenting the ideas in the way that gets you maximally riled up due to memetic selection effects (see outrage link).

Comment author: Algernoq 21 July 2016 03:45:28AM 2 points [-]

Don't let the fact that bad female actors exist deter you from having happy relationships with good female actors.

"Good" = doing what benefits others. "Bad" = doing what benefits me.

It's safest to assume that any woman will dump/manipulate/cheat me the second it's in her best interest to do so.

It's safest to assume all guns are loaded.

Nope, the best case scenario is to marry the chief or otherwise secure the commitment of a high status man.

Nope, for any given high status man the woman is able to marry, there exists an even higher status man the woman would be able to fuck, but not marry, given a large population, and assuming infidelity is legal. Thus, in the real world, a woman marrying the most wealthy man who wants to marry her and then cheating with the most attractive man who wants to fuck her gives her the best combination she can achieve. A man who was both as rich as her husband and as hot as her affair partner would never marry her.

It doesn't take a genius to think of stuff like this

Any time this phrase occurs: think about it harder, and insist domain experts check it.

Comment author: ChristianKl 21 July 2016 02:36:57PM 0 points [-]

There are guys who primarily car about having sex with hot woman and there are woman who primarily care about having sex with hot man.

In both cases that's not the whole population.

Furthermore for many woman having sex with a man with whom they are in a love relationship is better than having sex with man with whom they aren't.

Comment author: hg00 21 July 2016 10:36:14AM *  0 points [-]

assuming infidelity is legal

http://lesswrong.com/lw/l0/adaptationexecuters_not_fitnessmaximizers/

Anyway, it sounds like you've gone through a lot. I'm sorry to hear of your suffering. I hope that someday you will have joyful experiences that help you put your current suffering in perspective.

Comment author: Algernoq 21 July 2016 05:56:10PM 1 point [-]

Thank you for the kind words.

Comment author: Lumifer 21 July 2016 04:41:48AM -1 points [-]

It's safest to assume that any woman will dump/manipulate/cheat me the second it's in her best interest to do so.

Ask and ye shall receive.

You're setting yourself up for an unhappy life.

Comment author: Algernoq 21 July 2016 04:52:43AM 2 points [-]

"What good is life experience to someone who plays Quidditch?" said Professor Quirrell, and shrugged. "I think you will change your mind in time, after every trust you place has failed you, and you have become cynical."

"You have to get seriously burnt by friends/employers/family members (ideally all three) over women/money/jobs (again ideally all three) before you realise that you create more hassle for yourself and crush opportunities if people perceive you to be smart/rich/well connected. Most people simply are not worth knowing and are too insecure to be good friends with."

Comment author: Lumifer 21 July 2016 05:18:33AM 1 point [-]

I am pretty cynical already and I don't see the point of this quote. I am not saying you should be a loyal friend to the whole world.

You, I presume, have been recently burned and so your sense of risk-reward is skewed at the moment. Yes, you can arrange your life to be almost entirely safe from emotional harm, but I suspect it will be a barren and highly unsatisfying life.

Comment author: ChristianKl 17 July 2016 11:37:30AM -1 points [-]

But if women have a biological imperative to mate with assertive, dominant men, then why isn't the population of men already made up of 100% assertive, dominant men? You'd expect the submissive "betas" to have been selected out of the population by now.

Not exactly. While someone with "bad genes" usually produces children with "bad genes" someone who has "good genes" doesn't always produce children with "good genes". Mutations happen and most of them are bad.

Comment author: hg00 18 July 2016 05:41:36AM 0 points [-]

Being able to walk upright on two feet is key to reproductive success, and thus the fraction of babies that are born crippled (due to mutations) is quite low. If being dominant and assertive has been key to reproductive success among men for a long time, one would expect the fraction of male babies that are born nondominant/nonassertive (due to mutations) to be quite low.

Comment author: Lumifer 18 July 2016 02:46:03PM 1 point [-]

If being dominant and assertive has been key to reproductive success among men for a long time

Not necessarily. Historically, once you get too many "dominant and assertive" men in close proximity, they start to kill each other. Their reproductive success is conditional on not being dead and in evolutionary terms that condition ceased to be very important only a moment ago.

Comment author: hg00 20 July 2016 10:23:12AM *  0 points [-]

Their reproductive success is conditional on not being dead and in evolutionary terms that condition ceased to be very important only a moment ago.

It's still pretty important, it's not like modern homicide rates and ancestral homicide rates are totally incomparable. Even if you don't get killed, gangsters are at risk of going to prison, and I hear prison is not a good place to meet girls.

But there's a lot of room between "weak, emotionally-manipulated, directionless sheep" and "violent enough to be at risk of getting killed or jailed". And it's a puzzle, to me at least, that this middle zone gets filled so rarely nowadays. Most traits are distributed on a bell curve, and one would expect to see the same for this trait, with most men having some mid level of "firefighter masculinity" that would be enough to impress women but not so much to be at serious risk of homicide or imprisonment. This doesn't seem to be the case, and I offered some possible explanations above. (Insofar as there's a two-humped distribution, my guess is that the humps are based (a) easy access to streaming pornography during childhood or (b) need to overcompensate for deep insecurities through hypermasculine show behaviors. BTW, it's incorrect to think that gangsters are secure in themselves.)

Comment author: Lumifer 20 July 2016 03:03:57PM 0 points [-]

it's a puzzle, to me at least, that this middle zone gets filled so rarely nowadays

Where do you get your sample from? Do you think that your conclusion applies to, say, rural Idaho? or to blue-collar working men?

Comment author: ChristianKl 18 July 2016 08:25:30AM 0 points [-]

Being able to walk upright is a binary criteria. The fact that having a high IQ correlates with being tall suggests that there are a lot of basic genes involved in high IQ or being tall. There are many different genes that can mutate and that slightly reduce effectiveness of the organism.

Being unable to walk is mostly due to single mutations that can be removed easier by evolution.

Few people are dominant and assertive when they are weaker than their peers. People are usually dominant and assertive as a result of being stronger.