Douglas_Knight comments on Open thread, Jul. 18 - Jul. 24, 2016 - Less Wrong
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I have some questions on discounting. There are a lot, so I'm fine with comments that don't answer everything (although I'd appreciate it if they do!) I'm also interested in recommendations for a detailed intuitive discussion on discounting, ala EY on Bayes' Theorem.
On a personal level, my intuition is not to discount at all, i.e. my happiness in 50 years is worth exactly the same as my happiness in the present. I'll take $50 right now over $60 next year because I'm accounting for the possibility that I won't receive it, and because I won't have to plan for receiving it either. But if the choice is between receiving it in the mail tomorrow or in 50 years (assuming it's adjusted for inflation, I believe I'm equally likely to receive it in both cases, I don't need the money to survive, there are no opportunity costs, etc), then I don't see much of a difference.
No.
I don't think people really mean anything very specific by "hyperbolic discounting." They are just considering a 3 period model and saying that anything other than exponential is inconsistent. The qualitative form of hyperbolic discounting---of falling rapidly at first, and then slowly---empirically matches human psychology, but I don't think people care very much about precisely what inconsistent preferences humans express.
Yeah, this is what I suspect, too. "Hyperbolic" is just a metaphor, a simple example of a curve that has the required properties. There is probably no hyperbolometer in the emotional center of the human brain.