= 27d567bc2d48d9f40e9ccc20ea370b15)
Unnamed comments on Open thread, Jul. 25 - Jul. 31, 2016 - Less Wrong
You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.
= 783df68a0f980790206b9ea87794c5b6)
Loading…= b715d02e85f7b3b4ae65ca3d3e450868)
Subscribe to RSS Feed
Powered by Reddit
= f037147d6e6c911a85753b9abdedda8d)
You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.
Comments (133)
What are rationalist presumptions?
I am new to this rationality and Bayesian ways of thinking. I am reading the sequence, but I have few questions along the way. These questions is from the first article (http://lesswrong.com/lw/31/what_do_we_mean_by_rationality/)
I suppose we do presume things, like we are not dreaming/under global and permanent illusion by a demon/a brain in a vat/in a Truman show/in a matrix. And, sufficiently frequently, you mean what I think you meant. I am wondering, if there is a list of things that rationalist presume and take for granted without further proof. Are there anything that is self evident?
Sometimes a value could derive from other value. (e.g. I do not value monarchy because I hold the value that all men are created equal). But either we have circular values or we take some value to be evident (We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal). I think circular values make no sense. So my question is, what are the values that most rationalists agree to be intrinsically valuable, or self evident, or could be presumed to be valuable in and of itself?
Rationalists often presume that it is possible to do much better than average by applying a small amount of optimization power. This is true in many domains, but can get you in trouble in certain places (see: the valley of bad rationality).
Rationalists often fail to compartmentalize, even when it would be highly useful.
Rationalists are often overconfident (see: SSC calibration questions) but believe they are well calibrated (bias blind spot, also just knowing about a bias is not enough to unbias you)
Rationalists don't even lift bro.
Rationalists often fail to take marginal utility arguments to their logical conclusion, which is why they spend their time on things they are already good at rather than power leveling their lagging skills (see above). (Actually, I think we might be wired for this in order to seek comparative advantage in tribal roles.)
Rationalists often presume that others are being stupidly irrational when really the other people just have significantly different values and/or operate largely in domains where there aren't strong reinforcement mechanisms for systematic thought or are stuck in a local maximum in an area where crossing a chasm is very costly.
If you're referring to the calibration questions on the 2014 LW survey, rationalists were pretty well calibrated on them (though a bit overconfident). I described some analyses of the data here and here, and here's a picture:
(where the amount of overconfidence is shown by how far the blue dots are below the black line)
I don't know of any data on whether rationalists believe they are well calibrated on these sorts of questions - I suspect that a fair number of people would guess that they are overconfident.
I'll also note here that I'm planning to do some analyses of the calibration questions on the 2016 LW Diaspora Survey during the next month. I think that there are issues with some of the questions that were on the survey, so before I do any analyses I'll note that my preferred analyses will only include 4 of the questions:
Which is heavier, a virus or a prion?
What year was the fast food chain "Dairy Queen" founded? (Within five years)
Without counting, how many keys on a standard IBM keyboard released after 1986, within ten?
What's the diameter of a standard soccerball, in cm within 2?
For thoroughness I will also do some secondary analyses which include 7 questions, those 4 plus the following 3 (even though I think that these 3 questions have some issues which make them less good as tests of calibration):
I'm thinking of a number between one and ten, what is it?
Alexander Hamilton appears on how many distinct denominations of US Currency?
How many calories in a reese's peanut butter cup within 20?