Comment on Open thread, Jul. 25 - Jul. 31, 2016

Tue, 02 Aug 2016 18:19:25 GMT

Explicit reasoning has a its disadvantages, but is still hard to do without. In talking about superforecasters, you are taking it that someone has managed to determine who they are as opposed to ordinary forecasters, raving lunatics, etc. Deterimining that kind of thing is where explicit reasoning..what's the alternative? Groups of people intuiting that each other are reliable intuiters?

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