See: You only need faith in two things and the comment on the binomial monkey prior (a theory which says that the 'past' does not predict the 'future').

You could argue that there exists a more fundamental assumption, hidden in the supposed rules of probability, about the validity of the evidence you're updating on. Here I can only reply that we're trying to explain the data regardless of whether or not it "is true," and point to the fact that you're clearly willing to act like this endeavor has value.