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ike comments on Risk Contracts: A Crackpot Idea to Save the World - Less Wrong
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Comments (35)
I will offer you a bet at any odds you want that humanity will still be around in 10 years.
See http://lesswrong.com/lw/ie/the_apocalypse_bet/
If you think this is related, then I failed to communicate my idea.
You can think of risk contracts as of an internal currency of decision making, that allows to coordinate risk management in a situation when there are multiple agents acting independently (or new agents are created).
Definitely different from betting on extinction events, or betting on predictions about those events.
On a re-read, I understand what you mean. But the issue is that it's hard to measure what level of risk certain activities have (citation needed). I kind of assumed you were saying something along the lines of "let the market decide" but apparently not. But then how do you plan on measuring risk?
If we had a iron-clad process for determining how risky things are, this would be a lot simpler.
Are you looking for the expression "risk budget"?
What is "internal currency" when you are talking about "multiple agents acting independently"?
Sorry, that was unclear. I meant "internal" to the decision making process. This process is implemented on many individuals in case of human collective intelligence. But in some cases it makes sense to think about it as a single decision making process in the abstract.
OK, give me US $1000 now and I promise to pay you back $1000.01 in ten years.
That's a loan, not a bet.
The only form of bet I'll accept if I'm betting that humanity won't exist in 10 years.
"That's the joke" image goes here.
I will do it not only at any odds, but for any term that you'd like! :-)