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mirefek comments on Fermi paradox of human past, and corresponding x-risks - Less Wrong
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I agree with you, I think that I have the same problem with the article. Probability theory can not be used in such a way.
Every planet with some civilizations have a first one. People of the first civilization always wonder why they are first.
It does not mean anything for the future. Especially, it does not imply whether there will be other civilizations afterward.