Nick Bostrom says Google is winning the AI arms race

polymathwannabe

I don't think we are that far away from AGI.

At the very least 20 years. And yes Alphabet are the closest, but in 20 years a lot of things can change.

I think it's well within the realm of possibility it could happen a lot sooner than that. 20 years is a long time. 20 years ago the very first crude neural nets were just getting started. It was only the past 5 years that the research really took off. And the rate of progress is only going to increase with so much funding and interest.

I recall notable researchers like Hinton making predictions that "X will take 5 years" and it being accomplished within 5 months. Go is a good example. Even a year ago, I think many experts thought it would be beate... (read more)

1entirelyuseless10y

I doubt there is much motivation here for "at least 20 years" except the very fact that it is hard to tell what will happen in 20 years. I agree with Robin Hanson that we are maybe 5% of the way to general AI. I think 20 years from now the distance we were from AI at this point will be somewhat clearer (because we will be closer, but still very distant.)

8

Nick Bostrom says Google is winning the AI arms race

8

8

8

Nick Bostrom says Google is winning the AI arms race

8

8