This is a linkpost for http://www.newsweek.com/nick-bostrom-google-winning-artificial-intelligence-arms-race-red-button-506624
I doubt there is much motivation here for "at least 20 years" except the very fact that it is hard to tell what will happen in 20 years.
I agree with Robin Hanson that we are maybe 5% of the way to general AI. I think 20 years from now the distance we were from AI at this point will be somewhat clearer (because we will be closer, but still very distant.)
I agree with Robin Hanson that we are maybe 5% of the way to general AI.
On what basis do you say that?