This is a linkpost for http://www.newsweek.com/nick-bostrom-google-winning-artificial-intelligence-arms-race-red-button-506624
I agree with Robin Hanson that we are maybe 5% of the way to general AI.
On what basis do you say that?
On the basis of thinking long and hard about it.
Some people think that intelligence should be defined as optimization power. But suppose you had a magic wand that could convert anything it touched into gold. Whenever you touch any solid object with it, it immediately turns to gold. That happens in every environment with every kind of object, and it happens no matter what impediments you try to set up to prevent. You cannot stop it from happening.
In that case, the magic wand has a high degree of optimization power. It is extremely good at converting things ...