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Oscar_Cunningham comments on The Second Law of Thermodynamics, and Engines of Cognition - Less Wrong
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(I guess DaveInNYC won't read this but I guess someone else might.)
If you lump together X's starting state into X2-X8 then you can't be sure that it isn't actually X3, X5 or X7. So you have to look at where those possibilities go as well. Then the entropy can't go down (since by Liouville's Theorem they have to go somewhere different from X2, X4, X6 and X8).