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Rolf_Nelson2 comments on The Second Law of Thermodynamics, and Engines of Cognition - Less Wrong
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Another solid essay.
To form accurate beliefs about something, you really do have to observe it.
How do we model the fact that I know the Universe was in a specific low-entropy state (spacetime was flat) shortly after the Big Bang? It's a small region in the phase space, but I don't have enough bits of observations to directly pick that region out of all the points in phase space.