This is a linkpost for https://sideways-view.com/2016/11/26/if-you-cant-lie-to-others-you-must-lie-to-yourself/
The relevant comparison is if you know you are going to arrive at either 12:15 or 12:05 equiprobably---do you say "12:10" or "12:07"? Or, if you are giving a distribution, do you say that the two are equiprobable, or claim a 2/3 chance of 12:05?
Consciously, I am thinking "Let's think this through together to figure out if it's worth doing," not "how can I convince him to approve this?" I'm not at all convinced that the difficulty of lying extends to the difficulty of maintaining a mismatch between conscious reasoning and various subconscious processes that feed into estimates.
Consciously, I am thinking "Let's think this through together to figure out if it's worth doing," not "how can I convince him to approve this?" I'm not at all convinced that the difficulty of lying extends to the difficulty of maintaining a mismatch between conscious reasoning and various subconscious processes that feed into estimates.
I'm imagining signs during the conversation like: If it starts to look like some other project would be more valuable than the idea you came in with, do you seem excited or frustrated? Or: If a new c...