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JDM comments on Perpetual Motion Beliefs - Less Wrong
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Comments (38)
If it were something too open to debate, it would take away from the point.
The point is as stated. There is a non-zero probability it will happen, so you shouldn't use "certain", but any reasonable person will act on the belief it isn't going to happen.
If he used religion, which is also extremely unlikely to be correct, it would distract from the point.