Less Wrong is a community blog devoted to refining the art of human rationality. Please visit our About page for more information.

ike comments on Double Crux — A Strategy for Resolving Disagreement - Less Wrong

61 Post author: Duncan_Sabien 29 November 2016 09:23PM

You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.

Comments (104)

You are viewing a single comment's thread.

Comment author: ike 29 November 2016 10:47:16PM 1 point [-]

2 points:

  1. I've used something similar when evaluating articles: I ask "what statement of fact would have to be true to make the main vague conclusion of this article correct"? Then I try to figure out if that fact is correct.

2.

For instance: (wildly asserts) "I bet if everyone wore uniforms there would be a fifty percent reduction in bullying." (pauses, listens to inner doubts) "Actually, scratch that—that doesn't seem true, now that I say it out loud, but there is something in the vein of reducing overt bullying, maybe?"

A problem with doing that is that saying something may "anchor" you into giving the wrong confidence level. You might be underconfident since you're doing this without data, or you might just expect yourself to not believe it on a second look.