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MrMind comments on CFAR’s new focus, and AI Safety - Less Wrong

30 Post author: AnnaSalamon 03 December 2016 06:09PM

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Comment author: MrMind 12 December 2016 08:47:44AM 0 points [-]

I see two unrelated sub-problems: one of prediction and one of coordination.

We already know that experts are better than layman, but differentiated groups perform better at prediction than experts. Thus, a decisions took by an aggregated prediction market will be better in terms of accuracy, but the problem here is that people in general do not coordinate well in a horizontal structure.