This is a linkpost for http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2017/01/dominic-cummings-brexit-referendum-won/
I don't think you can justify using the word "equivalent" like that. I think maybe you mean "evolution and memetics are similar to Bayesian updating in some ways". That is not the same thing as "equivalence". It is not really helpful to take a very specific thing and say that it is "equivalent" to other very very different things, especially if such a comparison does not help you make any predictions.
My culture has a story in it that the Creator of the Universe is going to come down in the form of a man and destroy the world if people do too many things that are said to be bad by a certain book. There is no plausible way in which the process by which this meme has propagated can be explained by Bayesian updating on truth value.
I didn't mean 'similar'. I meant that it is equivalent to Bayesian updating with a lot of noise. The great thing about recursive Bayesian state estimation is that it can recover from noise by processing more data. Because of this, noisy Bayes is a strict subset of noise-free Bayes, meaning pure rationality is basically noise-free Bayesian updating. That idea contradicts the linked article claiming that rationality is somehow more than that.
...There is no plausible way in which the process by which this meme has propagated can be explained by Bayesian updati