Less Wrong is a community blog devoted to refining the art of human rationality. Please visit our About page for more information.

rstarkov comments on Probability is in the Mind - Less Wrong

60 Post author: Eliezer_Yudkowsky 12 March 2008 04:08AM

You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.

Comments (190)

Sort By: Old

You are viewing a single comment's thread. Show more comments above.

Comment author: rstarkov 24 March 2011 03:36:12PM *  5 points [-]

Even more important, I think, is the realization that, to decide how much you're willing to bet on a specific outcome, all of the following are essentially the same:

  • you do have the information to calculate it but haven't calculated it yet
  • you don't have the information to calculate it but know how to obtain such information.
  • you don't have the information to calculate it

The bottom line is that you don't know what the next value will be, and that's the only thing that matters.