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paper-machine comments on Probability is in the Mind - Less Wrong

60 Post author: Eliezer_Yudkowsky 12 March 2008 04:08AM

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Comment author: [deleted] 03 July 2011 09:33:34PM *  -2 points [-]

Yes rational people can choose a different interpretation of QM, but they probably need to make other metaphysical choices to match in order to maintain consistency.

Aumann's agreement theorem.

Comment author: Eugine_Nier 04 July 2011 07:33:38AM 3 points [-]

Aumann's agreement theorem.

assumes common priors, i.e., a common metaphysical commitment.

Comment author: [deleted] 04 July 2011 07:42:21AM 2 points [-]

However, Robin Hanson has presented an argument that Bayesians who agree about the processes that gave rise to their priors (e.g., genetic and environmental influences) should, if they adhere to a certain pre-rationality condition, have common priors.

The metaphysical commitment necessary is weaker than it looks.

Comment author: MarkusRamikin 07 July 2011 10:47:35AM *  1 point [-]

This theorem (valuable though it may be) strikes me as one of the easiest abused things ever. I think Ayn Rand would have liked it: if you don't agree with me, you're not as committed to Reason as I am.

Comment author: [deleted] 07 July 2011 04:42:14PM 0 points [-]

If you don't agree with me, you're not as committed to Reason as I am.

Except that isn't what I said.

If MWI is wrong, I want to believe that MWI is wrong. If MWI is right, I want to believe MWI is right.

Comment author: jsalvatier 07 July 2011 04:58:23PM 1 point [-]

I believe he's saying that rational people should agree on metaphysics (or probability distributions over different systems). In other words, to disagree about MWI, you need to dispute EY's chain of reasoning metaphysics->evidence->MWI, which Perplexed says is difficult or dispute EY's metaphysical commitments, which Perplexed implies is relatively easier.

Comment author: Islander 25 July 2011 07:28:13PM 0 points [-]

That's interesting. The only problem now is to find a rational person to try it out on.