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JGWeissman comments on Probability is in the Mind - Less Wrong

60 Post author: Eliezer_Yudkowsky 12 March 2008 04:08AM

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Comment author: JGWeissman 27 July 2011 07:15:19PM *  3 points [-]

If a well calibrated rationalist, for a given probability p, independantly believes N different things each with probability p, then you can expect about p*N of those beliefs to be correct.

See the discussion of calibration in the Technical Explanation.