Less Wrong is a community blog devoted to refining the art of human rationality. Please visit our About page for more information.

JGWeissman comments on Probability is in the Mind - Less Wrong

60 Post author: Eliezer_Yudkowsky 12 March 2008 04:08AM

You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.

Comments (190)

Sort By: Old

You are viewing a single comment's thread. Show more comments above.

Comment author: JGWeissman 27 July 2011 07:15:19PM *  3 points [-]

If a well calibrated rationalist, for a given probability p, independantly believes N different things each with probability p, then you can expect about p*N of those beliefs to be correct.

See the discussion of calibration in the Technical Explanation.