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Roland2 comments on Probability is in the Mind - Less Wrong

60 Post author: Eliezer_Yudkowsky 12 March 2008 04:08AM

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Comment author: Roland2 12 March 2008 06:28:41AM 9 points [-]

GBM:

Q: What is the probability for a pseudo-random number generator to generate a specific number as his next output?

A: 1 or 0 because you can actually calculate the next number if you have the available information.

Q: What probability do you assign to a specific number as being it's next output if you don't have the information to calculate it?

Replace pseudo-random number generator with dice and repeat.

Comment author: rstarkov 24 March 2011 03:36:12PM *  5 points [-]

Even more important, I think, is the realization that, to decide how much you're willing to bet on a specific outcome, all of the following are essentially the same:

  • you do have the information to calculate it but haven't calculated it yet
  • you don't have the information to calculate it but know how to obtain such information.
  • you don't have the information to calculate it

The bottom line is that you don't know what the next value will be, and that's the only thing that matters.