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Will_Pearson comments on Probability is in the Mind - Less Wrong

60 Post author: Eliezer_Yudkowsky 12 March 2008 04:08AM

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Comment author: Will_Pearson 12 March 2008 06:55:15PM 0 points [-]

If you honestly subscribe to this view of probability, please never give the odds for winning the lottery again. Or any odds for anything else.

What does telling me your probability that you assign something actually tell me about the world? If I don't know the information you are basing it on, very little.

I'm also curious about a formulation of probability theory that completely ignores random numbers and other theories that are based upon them (e.g. The law of large numbers, Central limit theorem).

Heck a re-write of http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Probability_theory with all mention of probabilities in the external world removed might be useful.