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Z._M._Davis comments on Probability is in the Mind - Less Wrong

60 Post author: Eliezer_Yudkowsky 12 March 2008 04:08AM

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Comment author: Z._M._Davis 12 March 2008 08:32:48PM 0 points [-]

GBM, I think you get the idea. The reason we don't want to say that the gomboc has an inherent probability of one for righting itself (besides that we, um, don't use probability one), is that as it is with the gomboc, so it is with the die or anything else in the universe. The premise is that determinism, in the form of some MWI, is (probably!) true, and so no matter what you or anyone else knows, whatever will happen is sure to happen. Therefore, when we speak of probability, we can only be referring to a state of knowledge. It is still of course the case that if you toss a fair die a very large number of times, the proportion of threes you get will tend towards 1/6--we're just not using such cases as a definition of what probability means.

Having already written the above, I must add that I like Nick's just-posted frequency/uncertainty breakdown.