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Ben_Jones comments on Probability is in the Mind - Less Wrong

60 Post author: Eliezer_Yudkowsky 12 March 2008 04:08AM

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Comment author: Ben_Jones 13 March 2008 08:33:00PM 0 points [-]

You have to lay Ă‚ÂŁ1 on heads or tails on a biased coin toss. Your probability is in your mind, and your mind has no information either way. Hence, you lay the pound on either. Hence you assign a 0.5 probability to heads, and also to tails.

If your argument is 'I don't mean my personal probability, I mean the actual probability', abandon all hope. All probability is 'perceived'. Unless you think you have all the evidence.