I'm interested from hearing from everyone who reads this.
Who is checking LW's Discussion area and how often?
1. When you check, how much voting or commenting do you do compared to reading?
2. Do bother clicking through to links?
3. Do you check using a desktop or a smart phone? Do you just visit the website in browser or use an RSS something-or-other?
4. Also, do you know of other places that have more schellingness for the topics you think this place is centered on? (Or used to be centered on?) (Or should be centered on?)
I would ask this in the current open thread except that structurally it seems like it needs to be more prominent than that in order to do its job.
If you have very very little time to respond or even think about the questions, I'd appreciate it if you just respond with "Ping" rather than click away.
Is there any information on how well-calibrated the community predictions are on Metaculus? I couldn't find anything on the site. Also, if one wanted to get into it, could you describe what your process is?
Great question! Yes. There was a post on the official Metaculus blog that addressed this, though this was back in Oct 2016. In the past, they've also sent to subscribed users a few emails that looked at community calibration.
I've actually done my own analysis on this around two months ago, in private communication. Let me just copy two of the plots I created and what I said there. You might want to ignore the plots and details, and just skip to the "brief sum... (read more)