Interview with Nassim Taleb 'Trump makes sense to a grocery store owner'

Gunnar_Zarncke

I've always regarded Taleb as a half-crackpot, so the "After predicting the 2008 economic crisis, the Brexit vote, the U.S. presidential election and other events correctly," piece surprises me greatly.
Any idea of a source which would confirm this?

always regarded Taleb as a half-crackpot

My guess is Taleb wouldn't be offended by this, and would in fact argue that any serious intellectual should be viewed as a half-crackpot.

Serious intellectuals get some things right and get some things wrong, but they do their thinking independently and therefore their mistakes are uncorralated with others'. That means their input is a valuable contribution to an ensemble. You can make a very strong aggregate prediction by calling up your half-crackpot friends, asking their opinion, and forming a weighted average.... (read more)

0Lumifer9y

If you talk a lot, all the time, you end up predicting pretty much everything :-/

2maxjmartin9y

Source for the 2008 crisis prediction would be his book The Black Swam (I remember checking the publication date when reading The Black Swan, since it did seem very prescient): [...] source: http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/imbeciles.htm

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Interview with Nassim Taleb 'Trump makes sense to a grocery store owner'

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Interview with Nassim Taleb 'Trump makes sense to a grocery store owner'

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