This is a linkpost for http://www.thehindu.com/books/%E2%80%98Trump-makes-sense-to-a-grocery-store-owner%E2%80%99/article17109351.ece
538 put Trump winning popular vote at 20%. They put Trump winning EC while losing popular at 10%.
OK, they gave him a greater chance than I thought of winning the popular vote. I can't tell if that applies to the polls-plus model which they actually seemed to believe, but that's not the point. The point is, they had a model with a lot of uncertainty based on recognizing the world is complicated, they explicitly assigned a disturbing probability to the actual outcome, and they praised Trump's state/Electoral College strategy for that reason.