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That would not be reasonable if we were talking about something like a prediction of whether a 5-sided die would come up with the number 1. Why are polls any different?
Because the polls are supposed to be different and all forecasts about a 5-sided die are the same.
Imagine yourself collecting forecasts and updating on them. With the die, many forecasts will not change your expected probabilities because these forecasts are basically all the same. When you hear another one, the amount of information you have doesn't change. That is not (supposed to be) the case with polls.
If one forecast says 80% vs 20% and another, different forecast using, say, a different methodology or different sources, also says 80% vs 20%, your exp... (read more)