This is a linkpost for https://entirelyuseless.wordpress.com/2017/03/04/the-practical-argument-for-free-will/
This amounts to saying, "the probability that matters is the probability that I will get cancer, given that I have the lesion" or "the probability that matters it the probability that I will get cancer, given that I do not have the lesion."
That's what I'm denying. What matters is the probability that you will get cancer, period.
What matters is the probability that you will get cancer, period
That probability happens to depend on whether you have the lesion or not.