bigjeff5 comments on Initiation Ceremony - Less Wrong
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It's an ethics question.
Brennan didn't take the guide at his word, he re-checked his own results to see if he made a mistake. Confirming his own results, he restated them in the face of Authority telling him he was wrong, which is precisely why he was permitted into the Beyesian Conspiracy. Had he said "one-sixth", he would undoubtedly have been denied admittance.