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Doug_S. comments on Initiation Ceremony - Less Wrong
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Well... there's not much to say, here. It was an amusing piece of fiction, but doesn't seem to be more than that. If I were asked that question, I'd ask for some pencil and paper because I'm mediocre at mental arithmetic. (My algorithm for solving that kind of problem involves drawing lines on paper to find the right equation to plug numbers into.)
I write them out as frequencies instead of probabilities; it makes it much easier to conceptualize, a fact which is well documented but poorly understood.
Ha, I'm still reduced to drawing little stars on a piece of paper and circling them into different groups.
Man I need to work on this thing.