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Will_Pearson comments on Initiation Ceremony - Less Wrong

49 Post author: Eliezer_Yudkowsky 28 March 2008 08:40PM

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Comment author: Will_Pearson 29 March 2008 11:00:31AM 9 points [-]

Is this a maths question or a reasoning question?

What would the cult have said if the man had said something a long the lines of this to the first question.

"As probability is a subjective quality which must take all the information available to me to be valid, I'm not going to take the assumptions that were given to me. From the my estimate of your bodily proportions and the distribution of the height and weight of the general populace, and your low tone of voice compared to the average I would give you a 90% chance of being male."

Comment author: bigjeff5 03 February 2011 12:24:24AM 4 points [-]

It's an ethics question.

Brennan didn't take the guide at his word, he re-checked his own results to see if he made a mistake. Confirming his own results, he restated them in the face of Authority telling him he was wrong, which is precisely why he was permitted into the Beyesian Conspiracy. Had he said "one-sixth", he would undoubtedly have been denied admittance.