"Re Will Pearson's question: something like "didn't you hear me say 'if'", I should think."

Well they should phrase their questions better, and say what *would* be the probability (and probably put some caveat about that being the only information available no other prior knowledge etc*), rather than what *is* the probability. Imagine someone says, "If it takes 4 secs for light to move 5 metres, what is the speed of light?". The answer should still be 3x10^8 or there abouts, the data given by someone should not always change your prediction about the world, they might be trying to trick you or exploit a bias in order for you to get things wrong. This is if it is a reasoning problem, if it is a math problem, then all the data given in the problem has to be treated as correct.

## Comments (91)

Old"Re Will Pearson's question: something like "didn't you hear me say 'if'", I should think."

Well they should phrase their questions better, and say what *would* be the probability (and probably put some caveat about that being the only information available no other prior knowledge etc*), rather than what *is* the probability. Imagine someone says, "If it takes 4 secs for light to move 5 metres, what is the speed of light?". The answer should still be 3x10^8 or there abouts, the data given by someone should not always change your prediction about the world, they might be trying to trick you or exploit a bias in order for you to get things wrong. This is if it is a reasoning problem, if it is a math problem, then all the data given in the problem has to be treated as correct.