A major problem with Robin's theory is that it seems to predict things like, "We should find ourselves in a universe in which lots of decoherence events have already taken place," which tendency does not seem especially apparent.

Actually the theory suggests we should find ourselves in a state with near the least feasible number of past decoherence events. Yes, it is not clear if this in fact holds, and yes I'd put the chance of something like mangled worlds being right as more like 1/4 or 1/3.