nshepperd comments on The Dilemma: Science or Bayes? - Less Wrong
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Here is the standard causal graph for Newcomb's problem (note that this is a graph of the agent's actual situation, not a graph of related historical data):
Given that graph, my CDT solution is to return the action A with highest
sum_payoff { U(payoff) P(payoff | do(A), observations) }. Given that graph (you don't need a causal graph of course), my EDT solution is to return the action A with highestsum_payoff { U(payoff) P(payoff | A, observations) }.That's the easy part. Are you asking me for an algorithm to turn a description of Newcomb's problem in words into that graph? You probably know better than me how to do that.