Something just clicked for me. I mean, regarding the subject of the original post. There is a true dilemma, and in that dilemma, the choices of a pure Bayesian will look crazy to a Scientist, and vice versa.

The _hard_ difference between Science and Bayes is that Bayes does not require a model; Science does. Bayes simply predicts probabilities; Science attempts to establish a model that explains the probabilities.

Thus, a Bayesian won't care about the quality of the model he's given, EXCEPT that it must not be complex (a nonexistent model will work just fine).

MW (like all the others I've seen) is a lousy model, so science is not satisfied with it; but to a Bayesian, the quality of the model is irrelevant, so a Bayesian can accept the model or ignore it and not even ask for something better.

I'm definitely sounding like I disapprove of this pure Bayesian thinking. I'm starting to see that science plus bayes is more complex than bayes alone (which is a win for pure Bayesian thought), but I'm still not sure that not being able to make models is a good tradeoff for pure simplicity.