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Kindly comments on When Science Can't Help - Less Wrong
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Ahem. Am I reading this right?
There's a 20-year-old human with three days left to live. They have a choice: Either they spend a million dollars having fun during those three days, or invest that million dollars in research to find a cure for their unique illness and put themselves on life support in the meantime. There is only 10% chance that a cure will be found within <10 years (after which life support fails), but if it is found, they gain all of their remaining life expectancy, which is probably more than 50 years.
You're telling us that everyone should party with the million dollars for three days, and then die.
Except for different values of 20, three, a million, 10%, <10, and 50.
Yes, though with my current value-estimates that's as close as I can get to the same relative expected utility without doing some heavy number-crunching that isn't warranted considering both the situation and the accuracy of my estimates.