lavalamp comments on Science Isn't Strict Enough - Less Wrong

13 Post author: Eliezer_Yudkowsky 16 May 2008 06:51AM

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Comment author: lavalamp 01 November 2012 03:27:00AM *  0 points [-]

8/108 is not the correct calculation. You want 8/107. That's women with cancer and a positive test divided by all women with a positive test. Out of 1000 women, there are 99, not 100 false positives (10% of 990 women without cancer).

or: .01 * .8 / (.01 * .8 + .99 * .1) = 7.4766355%