Unknown: Eliezer may say "making up random numbers will produce random decisions," but nonetheless, in the case of anything uncertain, there must be certain wagers he would accept and certain wagers he would reject. So implicitly he must accept some numbers.

Correct, and I do sometimes ask myself "What are my revealed betting odds for a Singularity by 2015 / after 2050?" and such, but I don't treat the result as a usable number - just a kind of self-insight.

Vassar: I think that the scientific lineages phenomenon requires more than a sentence or two of attention. Half of Nobel Prizes go to the doctoral students of other Nobel Laureates

This is insanity. Does no one know what they're teaching?