About flaws in the post: the idea that environmentalists shouldn't oppose a scaling up of nuclear power is a flaw. This paper: http://www.stormsmith.nl/ was lucky enough to be written (I was lucky enough to find it since every nuclear utility on the planet ignored unearthing the basic economic analysis contained within it). Basically, scaling up of nuclear fails to cost the complete life-cycle of decommissioning a powerplant. And, additionally, going to all nukes ensures the nuclear lobby (the process of lobbying is something Libertarians don't understand) becomes a nearly permanent chunk of the world's economy. My point is that Bayesian reasoning here only unearths the nuclear facts and lies the nuclear industry forwards. You need reliable information sources in addition to Bayes to make correct judgement calls on eoconmics/energy here.

Cryonics is another flaw. IDK if it works or not. But the expensive process certainly shouldn't be a part of Universal Healthcare coverage at present. The best research (not 1970's deductive reasoning)about brains I've read to date, suggests thought is a substrate specific (IDK how much, semiconductors no way but maybe more inclusive than CNS proteins) process that functions as temperature-dependant solitons. Whatever temperature the brain goes down to in the cold water of ice-slip hypothermia survivors, does not necessarily mean brain processes will survive liquid nitrogen or helium temperatures. Under the mathematical model of reality most transhumanists have, temperature (requires physics) doesn't even exist!! I hope cryonics works, and if I were rich enough I might sign up or fund suspension research, but to suggest those who don't believe in cryonics are fools is to suggest brains work identically at 25C and -273C. Then the "rationalist" rebuttal is always to invoke "uploading for immortality" (where Transhumanism dies to me, despite all its progressive memes). If rationalists can't understand mathematics isn't physics, I don't want to be labelled a rationalist and I will pepper posts such as this to avoid unsuspecting readers from mindlessly believing a mindless belief system; I am trying to prevent H+ from functioning as a cult.

Intrade free money?! Surely you must know it takes $5000-$15000/yr in basic costs alone to live in most of the Western world. Surely you must know the average savings rate is very low. Please qualify statements like this with "rich/middle classes can make investments on liquid (can Insite really handle trillions of $$ as suggested and wouldn't it then be subject to manipulation: I'll bet the 65 cents in my pocket Phillip will splash coffee on himself). Bayes may be important, but if it misses very basic facts (like 9/10ths of the world can't presently afford to live off investment income), why would the world want to incorporate more Bayes, a small subset of probability theory already in math, logic and computer science curriculums (I think)? Sweet. I did splash coffee on myself and double up to $1.30. Now I can donate to the political party most likely to teach (for the purpose here of reasoning skills, not ethics) probability theory instead of religious dogma, in public schools. That is the conclusion of the post: better public education at the expense of pop-culture. Or more funding for public education commercials?