Cracking post, really well written. I feel as though this could have preceded the last few and stood up on its own, in which case I may have been more on board recently. But that's by the by - this all rang very true.

So how does one sit down in an armchair, think about what we know about protein folding, and go about solving the big problem? Einstein didn't start by studying AI, probability theory, Bayesian reasoning etc. What did he have that we all seem to find so elusive? There must be a more satisfactory answer than 'a really high g-factor.'

Joseph - don't just make that assertion, draw something from it. As Eliezer says, we should never forget the failures. But bearing in mind the 'quantum fiasco', and thinking about Einstein, it's those great minds producing those great leaps forward that have been responsible for a good deal of those ratchet turns: in particular the most difficult, unintuitive ones. Imagine if we could teach that!