srn347 comments on That Alien Message - Less Wrong
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Am I the only bayesian here who assigns a much higher probability to the stars doing that by coincidence than to aliens actually doing that to signal?
The stars changing luminosity, abruptly, regularly, precisely, and this is centered on Earth in both time and space ? Yes, you are.
EDIT: The relevant section:
[EDIT: removed false claim that the effect must be superluminal. Thanks, TheOtherDave!]
We don't know that the effect is superluminal; it's equally consistent with the idea that stars throughout the night sky were modified starting millenia ago so that when the light arrived in the region that earth is traversing right now it formed a regular pattern. (Though there's no particular reason I can see to reject the theory that the effect is superluminal, either.)
Whoops, you're right.
I'd find that evidence -against- aliens within our galaxy, actually, as it would go a long way towards convincing me that I'm living in a simulation in which our planet is the primary emphasis.
(The aliens referred to would be the ones running the simulation. Y'know, like in the story?)
(Laughs Retracted. I should really stop replying to comments directly from the comment stream.)