Recovering_irrationalist comments on Timeless Causality - Less Wrong
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Dynamically Linked, that's cheating because M1 always equals M2. It's like those division by zero proofs.
Regardless, Eliezer's point here is utterly beautiful and blew my mind, but I just want to check it's applicability in practice:
True if we're sure we're perfectly reading L1/L2 and perfectly interpreting them to predict M2. But if not then I think the answer's yes because M1 provides additional implicit evidence about L1/L2 than we get from an imperfect reading or interpretation of L1/L2 alone.
Then again, you still get evidence about the direction of causality by how much P(M2|L1,L2) and P(M2|M1,L1,L2) tend to approximately equality in each direction, so even very imperfect knowledge could be got around with statistical analysis. I haven't read Judea Pearl's book yet so sorry if I this is naive or already discussed.