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taelor comments on Einstein's Superpowers - Less Wrong
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Interesting choice to use the A.I. box experiment as an example for this post, when the methods used by EY in it were not revealed. Whatever the rationale for keeping it close to the vest, not showing how it was done struck me as an attempt to build mystique, if not appear magical.
This post also seems a little inconsistent with EY’s assistant researcher job listing, which said something to the effect that only those with 1 in 100k g need apply, though those with 1 in 1000 could contribute to the cause monetarily. The error may be mine in this instance, because I may be in the minority when I assume someone who claims to have Einstein’s intelligence is not claiming anything like 1 in 100k g.
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Whaaa? Is this saying you think Einstein had substantially less than 1 in 100,000 general intelligence? That seems like a severe underestimate. 1 in 1e5 really isn't much, there should be 70,000 people in the world like that. There isn't a small city full of Einsteins. I've gotten back standardized test reports showing higher percentiles than that.
This reminds me of the time somebody asked me if I considered myself a genius and I asked them to define genius as a fraction of the population. "1 in 100,000? 1 in 1 million?" I inquired. And they said, "1 in 300" to which my reply was to just laugh.
Or am I reading it the wrong way around, i.e., Einstein is much above this level? If so, I wouldn't think more than a couple of orders of magnitude above, like 1 in 1,000,000 or 1 in 10,000,000. Other factors than native g will be decisive past that point.
I remember a time I saw a newsreport about a little girl who "miraculously" survived some terminal disease. Later in the report, it was mentioned that the recovery rate for said disease was something like 2%, and I laughed out loud that 1 in 50 was not a miracle.